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By Dimitris N. Chorafas (auth.)

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Longer-range effects are the risk of inflation, negative impact on growth, and more. Macroeconomic Challenges 37 In the years after World War II, periods of financial market volatility have been a signal that leadership in the markets, and growth stories associated with it, have been changing. Securities analysts believe that following the 2008/2009 events emerging economies, residential real estate, commodities, small caps, hedge funds, and private equity will not resume their past role. Instead of credit-driven motors, the new leaders will be: • Defensive, and • Relatively cash-flow-stable sectors of the economy.

That of France is 68 percent;47 servicing it absorbs practically all direct personal taxes (not corporate taxes or value added tax) paid by French citizens. 3 trillion50 – and if current Yankee deficit policies continue it is projected that it will reach between 230 percent and 240 percent of GDP by 2040, which means that a disaster will befall the nation. In fact, all of the aforementioned current public debt figures are underestimates because they deliberately don’t account for all government commitments.

The risk of contagion also includes the likely aggravation of assumed exposure should a liquidity crisis in one financial market segment spread to another. More recently, particularly as a result of the severe credit crunch, central bankers and economists have added other risk factors – such as cyclical and countercyclical credit events. In the background of this enlargement in factors of exposure lies the global repricing of risk in the credit market, which started in July/August 2007 and has been more severe and longer-lasting than recent previous cases of market turbulence.

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